Climate Change Vulnerability Scenarios

A reasonable starting point for any climate change adaptation policymaking process is to assess the vulnerability of the community, or other entity, at stake towards climate change. However, when entering into such a process it is important to bear in mind three important points:

1. Future vulnerability towards climate change is a sum-effect of both climate and societal changes

2. It is important to differ between local direct effects (the effects of climate change in your country and region) and global indirect effects (the effects of climate change in other countries; e.g. reduction in global food security due to climate change in important food export countries).

3. It is important to differ between vulnerability towards climate change and climate policy. The latter deals with vulnerability towards expected future, more ambitious climate policy goals, e.g. a dramatic increase in prices on fossil energy

In Clim-atic we have investigated all these different aspects of climate change vulnerability:

1.   Clim-ATIC powerpoint presentation for tourism sector workshop 21st January 2010 in Cairngorm National Park, Scotland

2.     Output from the DMI climate model - Greenland

3.     WP2  Vulnerability to Climate Change and WP3  Development of  community-led adaptation strategy in Scotland 

4.    Climate projections until 2050 - Basis for a vulnerability analysis of selected municipalities

5.    NORADAPT  – Adaptation to climate change at the municipal level in Norway

6.     Web-source for downscaling of climate change scenarios for Norway

7.   Examples from Norway of local climate change vulnerability assessments